El-Rufai’s Gathering Storm: Can His Momentum Upend Tinubu, Uba Sani Grip On Power?

The former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai has surprisingly transformed into a vocal critic of government policies and a champion of the people’s interests, as evident from his recent criticism of President Bola Tinubu’s administration and his successor, Governor Uba Sani

Not only has he taken a firm stand against the Tinubu, whom he strongly campaigned for, but he has also urged opposition parties to form a coalition to wrestle power from the ruling party.

In one of his many criticism, he had said “The problems that led to the creation of the APC remain unresolved, but I no longer believe the APC is interested in addressing them. The distance between me and the party is widening.”

Speaking further, he stated, “ There are internal mercenaries in the PDP, hired and motivated to destroy the party. The Labour Party is also facing similar issues. Peter Obi himself told me, ‘I don’t know what’s happening in the party I contested with.”

Naija News reports that El-Rufai seems relentless in his desire to wrestle power from the All Progressives Congress (APC), Tinubu and also his successor, Sani

But one must question the reason for the former governors’ activism. Does this come from a place of true patriotism, or is this a path of vengeance to wrestle power from those he once supported?

Tinubu, El-Rufai And Uba Sani

It is no news that El-Rufai’s ministerial nomination into Tinubu’s cabinet was blocked by the Senate due to a damning security report.

Will it be far-fetched to assume that El-Rufai’s discontent stems from what he perceives as a betrayal by the Tinubu’s administration?

Though he has repeatedly claimed that he did not seek any political appointment from the president, his sudden opposition raises questions.

El-Rufai earlier stated that he made it clear long before Tinubu won the presidential election in 2023 that he hads no interest in any appointment.

According to him, “I was cabinet minister 22 years ago and was clear to Asiwaju that I was not interested in any position in his future government. The pathetic manner all of you latter-day converts to the Tinubu government make an issue of something that I never wanted in the first place is perhaps a reflection of the level of your moral flexibility.”

He also insisted that he would have criticised Tinubu’s government if he were a member of the cabinet.

In the same vein, El-Rufai has shown his disdain for Gov Sani’s support for Tinubu’s administration.

El-Rufai and Sani were allies before the 2023 general elections. The governor, who was El-Rufai’s advisor, had on many occasions pledged his loyalty to the former governor until he won the governorship race in 2023.

However, after taking over power, Sani’s relationship with El-Rufai turned sour.

An ad hoc committee set up by the Kaduna State House of Assembly to investigate all finances, loans and contracts awarded under El-Rufai administration had indicted the ex-governor and some of his appointees of siphoning ₦423bn state funds

Recently, El-Rufai accused Sani of sycophancy and pandering to Tinubu for personal gain.

His criticism came after Sani’s remarks during an interview, where the governor expressed surprise at the growing criticism of Tinubu’s administration from some founding members of the APC.

El-Rufai alleged that Sani’s unwavering support for Tinubu was linked to over ₦150bn in federal reimbursements received by Kaduna State in the past 18 months.

“Every day I see this governor embarrassingly and sycophantically rambling, I used to wonder why? However, confirming that Federal Government ‘reimbursements, interventions, and grants’ in excess of N150bn have been given selectively to Kaduna by Tinubu in the last 18 months now explains everything.

“By all means, defend Asiwaju for the conditional cash transfer. Asiwaju has earned it, coming from you. The people of Kaduna State will judge at the right time and place. Have a nice day,” El-Rufai said.

The Wind Under El-Rufai’s Wings

While El-Rufai might wish to wrestle power from the APC, one question remains: does he have the political weight to cause a ripple?

Recently, El-Rufai and allies of ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, held a private meeting with the leadership of the Social Democratic Party in Abuja

The closed-door meeting, which took place at the SDP national secretariat, had sparked speculations about potential political realignments ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Among the notable attendees were Maj. Hamza Al-Mustapha an ex-presidential candidate and former Chief Security Officer to the late Gen Sani Abacha and Atiku’s former spokesman, Otunba Segun Showunmi.

Although the specific agenda of the meeting was not disclosed, it is being described as part of a broader strategy to forge alliances among opposition figures with the aim of presenting a formidable challenge to Tinubu in the next election cycle.

Showunmi confirmed the meeting in a Facebook post, describing it as a “strategic gathering” convened by SDP Chairman, Shehu Gabam, to evaluate the state of opposition politics in Nigeria.

While it is possible for El-Rufai to join forces with the opposition to strengthen his prowess, we must also not forget that he equally has enough enemies ready to challenge him.

Thoughts Of A Political Analyst

Speaking in an exclusive interview with Naija News, political analyst, Tunji Ojo has opined that El-Rufai latest outburst is all political, insisting that he does not have what it takes to unseat Tinubu and his successor, Sani.

“It is all political, it is all hard wired politics. Because it’s not only Tinubu. Even El-Rufai friend Sanusi Lamido Sanusi has also come out to criticise Tinubu because the assumption is that Tinubu’s presidency is not in support of Lamido.

“They believe that he prefers Ado Bayero to Lamido. Despite the fact that Tinubu assisted in bringing Lamido to power. Kwankwaso was the governor before Ganduje took over and upset the apple cart by removing Lamido Sanusi. When Ganduje removed Sanusi it was El-Rufai that gave him Chancellor of Kaduna State University

“When people don’t have a chair at the table they would cry. El-Rufai said that he was a founding member of APC. He participated in the registration, formation of the constitution, drafting and all of that.

“El-Rufai has a running battle with three senators of the state, Shehu Sani, and some others. He made sure they did not come back and that was in 2019. He made sure those senators did not come back because they were opposed to his borrowing plan in Kaduna State. Uba Sani initially tried to cover up for El-Rufai but the Kaduna people were disenchanted with him. He was not delivering on governance. Insecurity was worsening in his first year. There was something like the chibok attack in one community where teachers and pupils were carted away by bandits and several other abductions. When people of Kaduna State began to accuse Uba Sani of being a failure he had to speak out that his hands and legs are tied that his predecessor mortgaged the state finances and they are paying so much in term of huge debt that El-Rufai collected when he was governor.

“The state House of Assembly accused El-Rufai of corruption and misappropriation and they set up a committee to investigate and that itself was a huge slap on El-Rufai face.

“El-Rufai felt betrayed that Uba Sani whom he took a bullet for made a senator, and governor could not stand up for him. What really hurt him was that he has being pencilled down as the Minister of Power by Tinubu but when his nomination was suspended by the Senate they went to meet President Tinubu not just for El-Rufai but for Festus Keyamo. They cleared Keyamo but failed to clear El-Rufai for supposed security petitions and since that time El-Rufai has become bitter. El-Rufai felt that any petition written against him should have been waived and his nomination confirmed. There is nothing that El-rufai says that is new.

“El-Rufai is right. He is not saying anything new. But he would not say these things if he had gotten his ministerial nomination,” he said.

When asked if El-Rufai might be trying to push his political ambition as president, Ojo expressed doubt that El-Rufai was strong enough to challenge Tinubu.

“Can El-Rufai our of power wield such an influence over Northern Nigerians? he has made so much enemies. Am not sure he is a political threat to the re-election bid of President Tinubu. Tinubu as I know him is a master strategist.

“Tinubu is a master strategist. Tinubu knows the value of Uba Sani. He prefers Uba Sani to El-Rufai.

“Tinubu does not want to run with it in that El-Rufai is a nuisance or is of no effect. There is a saying a leper might not be able to milk a cow but he can spill the milk. But if you ask Tinubu to choose between El-Rufai and Uba Sani he will choose Uba Sani.

“Some people advised Tinubu not to allow the nomination of El-Rufai to fly that he is a lesser evil in the whole permutation of 2027.

“I am not taken in by all the activism and heroism of El-Rufai because if there is a reshuffle and El-Rufai is made a minister he will not be speaking this way. El-Rufai was a former loyalist of Atiku, then he became loyalist of Obasanjo and then became a loyalist of Buhari. You should not believe people like that. How many ministers have resigned out of conviction of  this government is bad let me just resign,” he added.