Why Atiku, El-Rufai, Others’ Coalition Against Tinubu May Fail – Peter Obi’s Ally

A former Director-General of the Labour Party (LP) Presidential Campaign Council, Akin Osuntokun, has expressed doubts about the effectiveness of a coalition being formed by some political leaders to challenge President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

Osuntokun, a former Managing Director of the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), commented on the coalition formed by opposition politicians last week, stating that while alliances are common in Nigerian politics, he does not believe this particular coalition will succeed against the president.

He described Tinubu as an experienced politician and strategist who knows how to navigate the complex political landscape.

“If he (Tinubu) could win an election (against all odds) when he was not President, you can imagine now when he is the President,” Osuntokun told NAN, noting that Tinubu’s power of incumbency would be a significant advantage if he runs for re-election in 2027.

He further stated, “I would not bet on the chances of the opposition. Tinubu seems to have a lot of cards to play at his disposal, and he is experienced and a master in terms of political strategy during elections. So, I would not bet against him.”

Despite his skepticism, Osuntokun acknowledged that forming a coalition to challenge the government was not inherently wrong, as long as the participants remained faithful to the goals of the alliance.

“For any political party, to effectively challenge the power at the centre, it requires coming together to form a grand party, in order to stand a better chance of having their objective being realised,” he said.

He also pointed to the APC’s victory against the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2015 as an example of successful coalitions in Nigeria’s political history.

However, Osuntokun warned that the coalition might falter if its members failed to agree on how to select a presidential candidate. “This is going to be a test of the durability and potency of the coalition,” he added.

Osuntokun advised the opposition leaders, especially those from the North, to set aside personal ambitions and support a Southern candidate for the success of the coalition.

He highlighted that if a Northern politician, such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, secured the presidential ticket, it could violate the convention of power rotation between the North and South, which has been in place since 1999.

He cautioned, “He is going to violate that convention, and to that extent, he is going to lose support from the intelligentsia, and it will be a very hard sell.”

Naija News reports that Atiku Abubakar, during a meeting of key opposition leaders on Friday, announced the formation of the coalition aimed at unseating President Tinubu in 2027.

The event, held in Abuja, was attended by several opposition politicians, including former APC members who have since defected.

Notable figures included Peter Obi, the 2023 LP presidential candidate, represented by Dr. Yunusa Tanko; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal; and former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, among others.