Speculation Rises About Saraki’s Political Future Ahead Of 2027 Elections

As the 2027 general elections approach, political observers are closely watching the future of former Senate President and one of Nigeria’s most influential politicians, Bukola Saraki.

Since his defeat in both the 2019 and 2023 elections, questions about his next move in the political arena have only intensified.

Saraki, once a dominant force in both Kwara State and national politics, has maintained a notably low profile, leading many to wonder about his next steps.

His silence, despite increasing political movements within the opposition, is seen by some as a strategic decision rather than disinterest.

In recent weeks, Saraki has largely remained absent from coalition talks among key opposition figures, including his ally and 2023 PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.

This has led to speculation about his political intentions, with many questioning whether Saraki plans to recontest the Kwara Central senatorial seat, return to the All Progressives Congress (APC), or even step back from politics entirely.

During a recent visit to Ilorin for the Nikkah ceremony of the Mufti of Ilorin, Saraki reportedly met with a select group of loyalists to discuss the political landscape.

According to an insider at the meeting who spoke with Daily Trust, Saraki made it clear that he had no intention of rejoining the APC, dismissing rumors to the contrary as attempts by certain APC figures to create confusion.

“We discussed it during the meeting, and he debunked it,” said the source.

Saraki also expressed skepticism about the ongoing efforts to form a new political party, suggesting that President Bola Tinubu’s political acumen would make it difficult for opposition forces to register a new party.

He noted that many governors from both the APC and PDP have pledged their loyalty to the president, making it unlikely that these governors would fund a new coalition.

Looking To Nyesom Wike’s Strategy?

One significant possibility for Saraki’s next move is to follow a strategy similar to that of Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister.

According to another insider, Saraki is likely to stay within the PDP while supporting the president, as Wike and other PDP governors like Makinde and Ortom have done.

With this approach, Saraki could leverage the benefits of political loyalty without abandoning his party, ensuring that the Saraki political dynasty remains intact. Saraki’s camp has ruled out the possibility of him joining the Social Democratic Party (SDP), while acknowledging that the political dynamics could shift unexpectedly.

Despite the silence, those close to Saraki insist that he is carefully observing the political developments both in Kwara State and on the national stage.

“The silence is deliberate. “Saraki is watching the unfolding political situation and will make decisions that are in the best interest of the country and his political future,” said one senior source.

Saraki’s influence in Kwara State politics, once unassailable, has been tested in recent years, especially following the “Otoge” revolution in 2019 that dismantled his political dominance.

The defection of over 20 key members of the PDP to the APC in 2023, including long-time loyalists, has further weakened his hold on the state.

However, party officials in Kwara, including the PDP chairman in Kwara and former Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Babatunde Mohammed, insist that the Saraki political dynasty is not yet finished.

Commenting on Saraki’s silence regarding the national coalition, Babatunde said, “As party chairman, I don’t want to talk much about that for now until our NEC meeting around May. But in Kwara, all elective positions will be contested. There will be no imposition of candidates.”

PDP spokesperson, Olushola Adewara, also reaffirmed Saraki’s loyalty to the PDP, saying, “He is not in any other place. We are very prepared as a party for the next election.”

Another senior member of the dynasty, who declined to be named, said those who left the party had long disengaged and their departure was not a major concern.

The National Secretary of the NPSA, Bakare Adebola, told Daily Trust, “No dynasty dies in politics except it decides to. We don’t know what the APC government will do in four years’ time or the kind of candidate the Sarakites will field in 2027. He may be somebody that is so loved and people will have no choice.

“I don’t envisage the end of the dynasty; it depends on how they want to navigate the present situation. One of the mistakes the Saraki dynasty made was to go into its shell immediately; they lost in 2019 and waited till the election was around the corner before coming out.

“Following the same snail pattern will amount to another defeat in 2027. Now out of power, if they refuse to go back to their shell and continue to embark on programmes to ring a bell with the name, they may come back at the next election with required funding.”

He urged Saraki to draw lessons from Kano, where the Kwankwasiyya movement, after losing in 2019, bounced back in 2023 to win the governorship and two senatorial seats.

When contacted, Saraki’s media aide, Yusuph Olaniyonu, said, “Saraki is in Saudi Arabia for Lesser Hajj and I am not with him so I don’t know his position regarding the coalition.”

But the National President of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), Hassan Saliu, offered an analytical perspective: “Maybe he is still observing the situation to know where to pitch his tent.

“If those moving around may not accommodate him, do you think he will go with them? He has to do his own calculations, and there are options — whether to remain in PDP, join the APC or leave to join another party.”

A lecturer of Politics and Governance at Kwara State University, Seyid Hassan Cisse, said, “Saraki is a very smart politician, no doubt, but the PDP needs to work on their inner caucus. The likes of Wike, Makinde and other top party leaders are just hanging — you don’t know where they belong to.

“I do not perceive that Saraki is coming for presidency because I don’t think it will be a smart decision for the party to bring a candidate from the North Central. But he will have a significant influence over anybody coming.

“At times when people are being silent like this, they are being Machiavellian. Saraki is a great political chesser and knows how to play his games. It’s just that God at times shows His supreme presence.”

On the state of his local structure, he added: “Saraki will never give up at home because it’s better to keep the dynasty intact, especially now that the game in Kwara is becoming very tight.”